The hybrid threat in our immediate vicinity

Maritime shipping in Sweden’s coastal waters has changed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as Russian oil tankers have adapted their routes and patterns of behaviour to circumvent sanctions. This has resulted in an increase in vessels sailing under flags of convenience with ambiguous ownership.

The vessels in this “shadow fleet” are poorly maintained and often operate under obscure ownership structures. They are used to circumvent sanctions by transporting Russian oil. These vessels increase the risk of accidents and oil slicks, a situation that is putting significant pressure on the Swedish Coast Guard, which must commit more resources to monitoring and protecting the Baltic Sea.

From the perspective of the Swedish Coast Guard, which is responsible for maritime surveillance and environmental rescue at sea, one of the main dangers of the shadow fleet is the high average age of the vessels and their inadequate safety procedures. This increases the risk of accidents and oil spills that would have severe consequences for the sensitive ecosystem of the Baltic Sea.  

In response to the new threat scenario occasioned by the growing number of vessels in the shadow fleet, the Swedish Coast Guard has reinforced its maritime surveillance. By combining aerial reconnaissance, shipboard surveillance and satellite images, the movements of the shadow fleet and the potential risks can be mapped. This increased coast guard presence and the strategic importance of the Baltic Sea to European security policy has resulted in closer dialogue with the Swedish Armed Forces.